Chance, cause, reason; an inquiry into the nature of scientific evidence [by] Arthur W. Burks.

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Subjects 
BeweisfuÌˆhrung.
Causation. Chance. Evidence. Induction (Logic) Informatik. Wissenschaft. 
Description 
xvi, 694 pages illustrations 24 cm

Copyright Date 
[1977]

Notes 
Includes bibliographical references (pages 659672).

Contents 
I. Concepts and problems : 1. Questions and answers  2. Mathematics and empirical science : Logical and empirical statements ; The logical and empirical status of geometry ; The logical modalities  3. Specifying the meaning of a technical term  4. Inquiry and argument ; Kinds of logic ; The logic of empirical inquiry  5. Deductive and inductive arguments : Deductive arguments ; Inductive arguments and probability  6. Problems and methods : The four main problems of this book ; Theories and models in empirical science ; The methods of this book.
II. The calculus of inductive probability : 1. Introduction  2. The calculus of inductive probability : Axioms ; Truthfunctional and modal logic  3. Some theorems of the calculus of inductive probability : Probability and the logical modalities ; Multiplication principles ; Addition principles  4. Relative frequency  5. Bayes' theorem and induction : Bayes' theorem ; Confirmation by repeated experimentation ; The confirmation theorem ; Applications to induction  6. Unconditional probability. III. Alternative inductive logics and the justification of induction : 1. Three inductive logics  2. Inductive logics for simple models of reality : Simple models of reality ; Carnap's inductive logics  Induction and statistical uniformity ; Inductive logics and Bayes' method  3. Hume's thesis on the justification of induction : Alternative inductive logics and Hume's thesis ; Historical comment ; Speculative character of Hume's thesis  4. Frequency theories of probability : The frequency theory of empirical probability ; The frequency theory of inductive probability. IV. Probability and action : 1. Introduction  2. Peirce's pragmatism : The pragmatic principle of meaning ; Sameness of meaning ; Analysis ; The descriptive component ; The normative component ; Probability and pragmatism  3. The traditional theory of utility : Utility and choice ; Quantitative probabilities and valuations ; Infinite utilities ; Two paradoxes of utility ; Insurance and gambling ; Simple ordering of preferences and uncertainties  4. The book theorem. IX. Cause and chance in spacetime systems : 1. Introduction  2. Spacetime systems : Induction and repetition ; Indexical symbols and properties ; Cellular automata ; Local and global laws  3. Causality in nature : Uniformity of nature ; Determinism ; Neardeterminism ; Tychism  4. Determinism and chance : Embedded systems and probability ; Entropy and randomness ; Determinism and randomness. V. The pragmatic theory of inductive probability :1. Introduction : Preview ; Historical remarks  2. The calculus of choice: grammar : The marking game ' Choice and act trees ' Complete sets of trees  3. The calculus of choice: simple ordering : Marking and logical equivalence axioms ; Simple ordering of preferences ; Simple ordering of uncertainties  4. The calculus of choice: normal forms : Normal form axiom ; Comparative values ; Comparative probabilities  5. The calculus of choice: quantitative : Utilities and quantitative probabilities ; Proof of the main theorem ; Savage's axiomatic system  6. The pragmatic theory of inductive probability : Introduction ; The normative use of the calculus of choice ' Probability statements and logical truth  7. Closely related theories of inductive probability : The a priori theory ; The personalistic theory. VI. The logic of casual statements as a formal language  1. Introduction  2. The structure of the logic of casual statements : Grammar ; Axioms ; Proofs and theorems  3. An abstract interpretation : Examples ; Modal models ; Logical truth  4. The mechanical character of a formal language : Arithmetization of a formal language ; Godel's incompleteness theorem ; Machines and algorithms ; Machines and formal language  5. Some theorems of the logic of casual statements : Derived rules of inference ; Some metatheorems ; Paradoxes of implication. VII. The logic of casual statements as a model of natural language : 1. Introduction  2. Laws of nature : Laws and theories ; Causal laws  3. Subjunctives and dispositions : Causal modalities and subjunctives ; Causal dispositions ; Elliptical causal implication  4. Causality : Causes and effects ; Contravening causes and completeness  5. Iterated modalities : Change of dispositions ; Comprehensive modal logics. VIII. The dispositional theory of empirical probability : 1. Introduction  2. A fair coin : Dispositional model of the fair coin hypothesis ; Causal and probabilistic dispositions ; Dispositional models of atomic empirical probability statements  3. Dispositional models of empirical probability theories : Empirical probability theories ; The dispositional theory of empirical probability ; The positivistic theory of empirical probability  4. Alternative theories of empirical probability : The frequency theory of empirical probability ; Peirce's dispositionalfrequency theory of probability ; The personalisitic account of empirical probability. X. The presupposition theory of induction : 1. Introduction  2. The epistemological status of causal necessity : Empirical and a priori concepts ; Causal necessity is a priori ; Causal necessity is irreducibly model  3. Causal models of standard inductive logic : Possible causal systems ; Verification of causal systems  4. The presupposition theory of induction : The a priori aspect of inductive probability ; Epistemological status of the presuppositions  5. Historical antecedents : Keynes' principles of induction ; Kant's theory of causality  6. Summary of the presupposition theory. XI. Chance, cause, and reason : 1. Fundamental concepts ; 2. Questions and answers ; 3. A unified theory of probability, causality, and induction. 
Network Numbers 
(OCoLC)1031137
(OCoLC)ocm01031137 
WorldCat  Search OCLC WorldCat 
WorldCat Identities  Burks, Arthur W. 19152008.
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